Electricity: 30 years of growth

Following the Activity Report that the General Secretary Ronnie Amit gave to Council in Tel Aviv, this article looks at changes in electricity consumption and production so as to familiarize the IEC community with the trends over the past 30 years. Consumption of electricity by IEC Member countries is growing; the same pattern of growth can be seen in the development of their economies.

Over 30 years power consumption has more than doubled

The total power consumption of IEC Member countries over the years 1975 to 2005 grew by over 200 % where, for those countries participating in the IEC Affiliate Country Programme which are all part of the developing world, power consumption increased by over 380 %.

Over the same 30 years, total electric power production in the IEC Member countries grew at the same rate as consumption. But for countries participating in the IEC Affiliate Country Programme, electric power production grew a staggering 480 %.

Such figures make it hard to believe that a large number of people still do not have access to electricity. According to the IEA (International Energy Agency) electricity does not reach 1.6 billion people.

Electrification trend increasing

Looking at the per capita consumption of electricity, it is interesting to see that even the average growth for a country participating in the Affiliate Country Programme is much greater than that in an IEC Member country. While actual electricity consumption remains higher in IEC Member countries, at such growth rates it is only to be expected that less-developed countries will one day reach the same levels of actual consumption.

The growth of per capita electricity consumption suggests that the growth of total electricity consumption is not only attributable to population growth.

The increase in productivity and standard of living in developing countries are the most obvious explanations for the rise in individual consumption of energy. There are additional potential interrelated reasons why we are seeing such trends, including the growing access to electricity in developing countries. This is probably due to the trend of urbanization in the developing world. In 2006, 67 % of world electricity was consumed in cities. Urbanization concentrates populations and can facilitate access to electricity. However, the growth in electricity consumption is not directly attributable to population growth and density.

The increased international trade that developing countries have seen over the same period may also have played a significant role, contributing as it has to the growth in productivity. Indeed, we already see that the correlation between economic performance and electricity consumption is stronger for developing countries than for industrialized countries.

Demand for electricity growing faster than for other energies

Worldwide demand for electrical energy is growing at a higher rate than for other forms of energy. All over the world electrical energy is taking over areas that were not formerly powered by electricity. This strong trend for electrification seems to go hand-in-hand with increasing industrialization, as we have seen in developed countries. This suggests that electricity will also eventually outstrip other forms of energy in developing countries as they become more industrialized.

Electricity production growth higher than electricity consumption

The same patterns can be seen for electricity production, with a larger average growth rate for Affiliate Country Programme participants than for IEC Members. However, what is interesting is that the average electricity production for an Affiliate Country Programme participant grew from 1975 to 2005 by over 460 %, while the electricity consumption in the same time period was significantly lower, 335 %. Such trends indicate that countries participating in the IEC Affiliate Country Programme are becoming more self-sufficient as they put in place the necessary infrastructure to meet the growing demands for electricity.

The future for electrical energy

Although developing countries account for more than 75 % of the world’s population, total electricity consumption in these countries amounts to only one-third of the world’s consumption. The past 30 years have shown a trend of higher growth of consumption in the countries participating in the IEC’s Affiliate Country Programme compared to the IEC’s Member countries. Further growth in total electricity demand is to be expected, which in turn will require that populations have access to reliable supplies.

It is predicted that total world electricity consumption will double between now and 2030. Therefore, not only will electricity production need to grow, but increasing energy efficiency will also become even more important both to developed and developing countries. IEC International Standards can help increase electrical energy efficiency and at the same time play an important role in mitigating the dramatic effects of climate change.

The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2008 predicts that renewable energy technologies will show the most rapid growth over the coming years and expects them to become the second-largest source of electricity after coal, overtaking gas. The increased interest in renewable energy sources could also play a part in future electricity consumption and production trends, since developing countries stand at little disadvantage to the industrialized countries in this area. Indeed renewable energy capacity in poor nations currently amounts to more than 40 % of the world’s existing capacity.

IEC standards even more important in tomorrow's world

There is no doubt that electricity plays a vital role in today’s world and will play an even greater role in tomorrow’s. It is the IEC's job to provide the electrotechnical standards that can satisfy the world’s demand to ensure legitimate access to safe, efficient and environmentally responsible electricity.